Maersk goes from red to black

Maersk Line A.P. Moller-Maersk’s latest earnings upgrade is more than just a dramatic reversal for the world’s second-largest containerline. It has become the clearest indication yet that 2026 is shaping up to be another highly profitable year for the liner shipping industry. Only months ago, the Danish shipping giant warned investors it could post an underlying EBIT loss of as much as $1.5bn this year. Now, after a sustained surge in freight rates and stronger-than-expected cargo demand, Maersk expects to deliver an underlying operating profit of between $2bn and $4bn. Underlying EBITDA guidance has been lifted to $8bn-$10bn from a previous range of $4.5bn-$7bn, while the company’s outlook for global container demand has been raised to around 4% growth this year from an earlier forecast of 2% to 4%. The speed of the turnaround underlines how quickly fortunes can change in container shipping. Far from sliding into the prolonged downturn many expected as a record orderbook entered service, the market has instead tightened once again as demand has outpaced effective fleet growth. Industry data suggests Maersk is far from alone. Linerlytica estimates global teu-mile demand is currently expanding by 7.3%, comfortably ahead of fleet supply growth of 5.4%, producing the widest demand-supply gap since late 2024. Congestion has also returned with force, with almost 11% of the world’s containership fleet currently waiting outside ports, the highest level since 2022. These factors have pushed both freight and charter markets sharply higher. Spot freight rates reflect the improvement. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index has climbed above 3,200 points, more than double pre-conflict levels according to HSBC, while rates on both Asia-Europe and transpacific trades continue to rise. Xeneta expects network disruption linked to the Gulf crisis to persist into September even under an optimistic scenario, suggesting freight rates could remain firm for several more weeks. The market remains an unusual combination of strength and caution. On paper, supply should be overwhelming demand. The containership orderbook stands at roughly 12m teu, equivalent to more than one-third of the existing fleet, with deliveries expected to peak next year. Under normal circumstances, that volume of new tonnage would place severe downward pressure on freight markets. Instead, effective capacity continues to be absorbed by longer voyage distances, congestion, tactical capacity management and periodic geopolitical disruption. The Red Sea crisis continues to reshape global networks, while recent tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have added fresh uncertainty to vessel deployment and scheduling. Even so, few analysts believe today’s buoyant conditions will last indefinitely. The consensus remains that the current strength represents another disruption-driven phase rather than the start of a new supercycle. As more newbuildings enter service over the next two years and geopolitical bottlenecks gradually ease, freight markets are expected to normalise. For now, however, Maersk’s guidance upgrade sends a clear message. Predictions earlier this year that 2026 would be dominated by oversupply have given way to a very different reality. Once again, container shipping has demonstrated its remarkable ability to defy conventional market logic, turning what looked like a year of losses into another period of substantial profitability. Sam Chambers Starting out with the Informa Group in 2000 in Hong Kong, Sam Chambers became editor of Maritime Asia magazine as well as East Asia Editor for the world’s oldest newspaper, Lloyd’s List. In 2005 he pursued a freelance career and wrote for a variety of titles including taking on the role of Asia Editor at Seatrade magazine and China correspondent for Supply Chain Asia. His work has also appeared in The Economist, The New York Times, The Sunday Times and The International Herald Tribune. Read Next June 30, 2026 Castor adds second modern kamsarmax in a week June 30, 2026 Vallourec joins contractor line-up on Azule’s $5.1bn Angola development June 30, 2026 Bureau Veritas agrees sale of fuel testing division to Triton Partners June 30, 2026 Skyborn takes full control of German offshore wind farm June 30, 2026 Skov to step down as Hafnia chief executive