Air cargo demand rises 6 percent in May despite Middle East disruption

Global air cargo demand rose 6 percent year-on-year in May, with IATA reporting stronger volumes across Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America. Capacity grew at a slower pace of 1.9 percent, lifting the global cargo load factor to 46.3 percent and supporting airline yields despite higher fuel costs. Middle Eastern carriers remained under pressure, with demand down 8.9 percent as war-related disruption continued to affect Gulf-linked trade lanes. Global air cargo demand strengthened in May, with IATA data showing volumes rising well ahead of capacity despite continued disruption across Middle East-linked corridors. Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, increased by 6.0 percent compared with May 2025, while international operations rose 6.5 percent year-on-year. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres, grew at a slower pace, up 1.9 percent globally and 2.8 percent for international operations. The result was a tighter market, with the global cargo load factor rising 1.8 percentage points year-on-year to 46.3 percent. “Air cargo demand grew 6 percent year-on-year in May, with Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North American regions all reporting above trend growth,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “Carriers in the Middle East, however, reported a combined contraction of 8.9 percent year-on-year as war-related impacts continued.” The May data points to a market still being pulled in different directions. Demand was resilient across most major regions, but the Middle East remained under pressure, with regional carriers reporting the weakest performance of all regions. Middle Eastern demand fell 8.9 percent year-on-year, while capacity dropped 9.2 percent. That weakness was also visible at trade lane level. Europe-Middle East traffic contracted by 19.8 percent, marking three consecutive months of decline, while Middle East-Asia fell 16.5 percent, also recording three consecutive months of contraction. IATA said Gulf-linked corridors remained “severely disrupted” by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Elsewhere, the picture was more positive. African airlines recorded the strongest regional growth, with demand up 13.3 percent year-on-year against capacity growth of 1.3 percent. North American carriers followed with a 10.5 percent increase in demand, while capacity rose 2.4 percent. Asia-Pacific, the largest regional air cargo market by world share in the table, recorded 8.0 percent demand growth and a 5.1 percent rise in capacity. European carriers also outperformed the total market, with demand up 6.7 percent and capacity up 2.2 percent. Trade lane data showed Asia-North America leading growth in May, with volumes up 19.9 percent year-on-year and four consecutive months of expansion. The lane accounted for 23.5 percent of industry market share, based on full-year 2025 CTKs. Europe-Asia also remained strong, growing 10.0 percent and extending its run to 39 consecutive months of growth. Within Asia rose 5.5 percent, marking 31 consecutive months of expansion, while within Europe increased 11.5 percent. The data suggest that air cargo growth in May was supported by selected trade flows rather than a broad-based rise in exports. IATA said global trade increased by 5.0 percent year-on-year, extending 25 months of consecutive annual growth. Manufacturing activity also remained supportive, with the Global Manufacturing Output Purchasing Managers’ Index rising to 53.5. However, export orders remained weaker. The New Export Orders Index stayed below the 50 mark at 49.6, suggesting that growth was not uniform across all trade flows. “May’s strong performance coupled with macro-economic factors give cautious optimism for air cargo’s prospects over the remainder of the year,” Walsh said. “Trade and manufacturing output are both growing. Airlines have adapted operations to align with shifting demand patterns and supply chain needs. Meanwhile, yield growth and higher load factors are helping to recoup higher fuel costs.” The Traffic Forecast: Air Cargo Demand Up 6.0 percent in May: watch video online