Global air cargo demand rises

Global air cargo demand remained strong in the first half of 2026, with worldwide tonnages up 5% year on year and June volumes 9% higher than the same month last year. Growth was led by Asia Pacific, Middle East & South Asia, and North America origins, despite ongoing market disruptions. Air cargo rates stayed elevated, with average full-market rates in June and Q2 around 33% higher year on year. Global spot rates averaged US$3.71 per kg in June, supported by strong pricing from Asia Pacific, Middle East & South Asia and Africa origins, although fuel price declines may ease rates in the coming weeks. Capacity recovery continued, with global air cargo capacity up 3% year on year as Gulf market disruptions stabilised. However, there was limited evidence of shipment front-loading ahead of new EU de minimis rules, with Asia Pacific-to-Europe volumes falling 7% week on week in the final week of June. Worldwide air cargo tonnages and rates in June and for the first half of 2026 were well up on last year’s levels, although tonnages and rates edged downwards in the final full week of June, declining both by 2% on a week-on-week (WoW) basis. According to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data, global tonnages in June were 9% higher than the same month last year, and stable compared to May, taking volumes for the second quarter (Q2) 6% higher, year on year (YoY), and also 6% above their level in Q1. Chargeable weight for the first half (H1) of 2026 was up 5%, YoY, as air cargo growth has continued this year despite the disruptions to capacity and markets in the Middle East, led by a 8% YoY H1 increase in tonnages from Asia Pacific origins. The strong June YoY tonnage growth was shared by most of the main air cargo origin regions, led by YoY increases from the Middle East & South Asia (MESA, 11%, partially driven by Eid al-Adha held in May this year vs June last year), Asia Pacific (10%) and North America (9%), with Europe (7%) and Central & South America (CSA, 7%) also contributing with healthy growth levels, while Africa’s growth was more subdued (1%). Spot rates stable in June Worldwide air cargo rates, meanwhile, remained high in June, despite the ongoing return of capacity to Middle East and Gulf markets, with average full-market rates around one third (33%) higher, YoY, for June and for Q2 as a whole, based on a combination of spot rates and contract rates. Average rates for Q2 were also well above (28%) their average level in Q1, illustrating how significantly the market has changed since the US and Israel began their military campaign against Iran on 28 February. Average worldwide spot rates in June of US$3.71 per kilo were broadly stable compared with their level of the previous month, but year on year the increase reduced from 49% in May to 43% in June. The YoY increase in June was driven by 49% from MESA and Africa origins, 47% from Asia Pacific, and also with substantial YoY increases from North America (42%) and Europe (34%), while spot rates from CSA were up by a relatively modest 14%, YoY. Despite continuing volatility and some renewed flare-ups in the confrontation between the US and Iran, the relative stability in the situation since the two sides signed a memorandum last month has led to a further fall in jet fuel prices, which dropped by another 2%, WoW, to below US$117 per barrel in the week ending 26 June, while Brent crude fell by 9% to below US$74 per barrel, according to IATA’s Jet Fuel Price Monitor, which is based on the latest price data from Platts. Various carriers have announced reductions in their respective air cargo fuel surcharges from 1 July, with further reductions likely to translate into an easing of overall air cargo rates in the coming weeks. Capacity recovery continues Those pricing dynamics also depend on the wider supply and demand situation across key markets, and the relative stability of the US-Iran situation in the last few weeks has helped support a continuing stabilisation of air cargo capacity to and from Gulf markets. Based on a comparison of the last two weeks with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W), worldwide air cargo capacity increased 3%, mainly driven by origin region MESA (5%), followed by North America (4%) and Europe (3%). That took worldwide air cargo capacity 3% higher than this time last year – with capacity from MESA origins now also back slightly above last year’s levels (1%, YoY). Limited effects of 1 July EU rule change In contrast to the ‘front-loading’ that took place last year ahead of various US import tariff deadlines and the removal of US ‘de minimis’ exemptions, there was little sign of air cargo ‘front-loading’ ahead of the 1 July change of EU de minimis rules, which introduce a €3 fixed-fee customs payment per item or tariff code for shipments valued at less than €150 that are imported into the EU. Air cargo volumes from China and Hong Kong to Europe fell by 8% and 9%, WoW, respectively, in the last full week of June (week 2